Research Ideas and Outcomes :
Review Article
|
Corresponding author: M.V. Eitzel (mveitzel@ucsc.edu)
Academic editor: Editorial Secretary
Received: 13 Jul 2021 | Accepted: 02 Sep 2021 | Published: 08 Sep 2021
© 2021 M.V. Eitzel
This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Citation:
Eitzel M.V (2021) A modeler's manifesto: Synthesizing modeling best practices with social science frameworks to support critical approaches to data science. Research Ideas and Outcomes 7: e71553. https://doi.org/10.3897/rio.7.e71553
|
In the face of the "crisis of reproducibility" and the rise of "big data" with its associated issues, modeling needs to be practiced more critically and less automatically. Many modelers are discussing better modeling practices, but to address questions about the transparency, equity, and relevance of modeling, we also need the theoretical grounding of social science and the tools of critical theory. I have therefore synthesized recent work by modelers on better practices for modeling with social science literature (especially feminist science and technology studies) to offer a "modeler’s manifesto": a set of applied practices and framings for critical modeling approaches. Broadly, these practices involve 1) giving greater context to scientific modeling through extended methods sections, appendices, and companion articles, clarifying quantitative and qualitative reasoning and process; 2) greater collaboration in scientific modeling via triangulation with different data sources, gaining feedback from interdisciplinary teams, and viewing uncertainty as openness and invitation for dialogue; and 3) directly engaging with justice and ethics by watching for and mitigating unequal power dynamics in projects, facing the impacts and implications of the work throughout the process rather than only afterwards, and seeking opportunities to collaborate directly with people impacted by the modeling.
algorithmic injustice, big data, citizen science, community-based participatory research, community and citizen science, critical theory, critical data science, data biography, data justice, data science, decision support, epistemology, ethical, legal, and social implications, interdisciplinary, high variety big data, high volume big data, history of science, machine learning, mixed methods, participatory modeling, qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis, quantitative-qualitative analysis, reproducibility, reproducibility crisis, science and technology studies, science and justice, situated knowledge, triangulation
Data science has the potential to work towards a more sustainable, more equitable world. However, whether this potential is realized depends on how our modeling practices move us towards or away from those goals. For example, methods from predictive advertising in industry are being enthusiastically applied to academic, governmental, and non-governmental contexts (
Modelers have created manifestos for better individual and collective practices (e.g.
The paper is organized as follows: I first review several technical and ethical concerns about working with high-volume and high-variety big data (and particularly issues with machine learning techniques). I then describe the methodology behind and research questions motivating this review. Finally, I place modeling literature in interdisciplinary conversation with feminist STS and related literatures, collecting framings and practices into my own modeler's manifesto. This interdisciplinary collection of practices is organized around three themes: 1) context (epistemic consistency, data biographies, and mixed-methods), 2) collaboration (triangulation, uncertainty as openness, interdisciplinary fluency), and 3) justice (power dynamics, impacts and implications in society, community-based modeling).
While there are definite advantages to incorporating large amounts of data into modeling, many statistical issues multiply for large datasets ("high-volume big data"), including collinearity, false positives, and significant but tiny effects. Collinearity refers to the situation when several variables which are themselves correlated are used to predict an outcome of interest, potentially giving a result that the group does predict that outcome, but one may not be able to tell which variable is really responsible. There is no way to remove collinearity, though efforts to work with it are long-standing (see
If one chooses to use hypothesis-testing methods, the approach of including many predictor variables also means a higher chance of having a "multiple testing" problem. Getting meaning from hypothesis-testing depends on the idea of controlling the rate of false positives (the alpha level or Type I error). This means that an individual statistical test might have a 5% chance of accidentally suggesting that something of interest is going on (when nothing is going on). There are ways to correct for this problem (e.g. "False Discovery Rate,"
There are many techniques for handling these issues, but my point is that more data is not automatically better (
Data collected over multiple decades by a large and constantly changing set of people raise issues of how to handle high-variety big data. This kind of big data is characterized more by the lack of control over its source than its quantity (
Unfortunately,
Accounting for measurement methods is also a part of using participatory citizen science data, another form of potentially high-variety big data which is currently growing in popularity. (Note that I use the term "citizen science" in the broadest possible sense, referring to participatory research of all kinds, e.g.
Faced with enormous quantities of data and many variables, many analysts turn to predictive accuracy as a metric to avoid some of the issues raised above regarding high-volume big data. Concerning oneself only with the model’s ability to predict known data can be a robust way to check models (
First, commonly-used predictive machine learning methods are notoriously opaque, though this can vary for the specific model in question. Many of them epitomize
Not only do black box models not help us understand the answers they give -- they can also be dangerous societal tools.
I have been especially critical of predictive, algorithmic models. It should be noted that there are efforts underway to audit these kinds of algorithms (e.g.
The issues I have raised in the introduction led me to seek out discussions with colleagues in a wide range of social science disciplines, including anthropology, communications, environmental justice, feminist studies, geography, psychology, science and technology studies, and sociology. During 2015-2018, through one-on-one meetings, participation in group events, auditing courses, and joining reading groups, I compiled a bibliography of pieces that addressed my questions regarding "better" modeling that could mitigate or avoid some of the issues I'd encountered. In reading this material, I reflected on how these social science framings (especially those from feminist STS) could inform my own modeling practices. From 2017-2020, I thematically coded these reflections via an iterative writing process (
Below, I outline the questions behind the project and my methods for evaluating and validating the results.
The questions that drove my literature review and synthesis process were the following:
Assembling the manifesto practices was a qualitative research process, therefore I followed best practices for assessing qualitative research in checking the credibility, consistency, and transferrability of the manifesto (
As a tool for modelers to apply to their own practice, for those developing data science pedagogy, and as a conversation-starter, I believe the manifesto is relatively rigorous as per the above validation processes.
I have already noted situations with big data and predictive algorithms where modeling involves hidden and not-so-hidden biases. Because both critical scholars and practicing modelers are aware that modeling and data science can be subjective and deeply entangled with justice issues, we need modeling practices and ways of thinking that enable us to articulate and address these aspects of modeling. In the sections that follow, I draw from a multi- and interdisciplinary range of literature to collect critical data science and modeling practices that could serve this need. The organizing themes of these practices draw from my engagement with feminist STS, so I begin by briefly reviewing important ideas from
One way to try to understand the world through a lens distorted by known and unknown biases is to use more than one kind of lens, noting how each may distort the picture. This strategy is a key component of "feminist objectivity," which is "about limited location and situated knowledge" (
This framing of each model as a partial picture of the world aligns with modelers' thinking as well, particularly the understanding that "all models are wrong, but some are useful" (
Below, I explore these ideas of models as partial knowledges further and outline nine proposed practices, merging my own observations as a practicing modeler with advice and thoughts from both modelers and social scientists from many different disciplines. I name the disciplines of the authors I cite in the manifesto practices (largely based on their affiliations), to give a sense of the breadth of the advice base. The practices are organized into a set of three themes: context, collaboration, and justice.
In my pursuit of science and technology studies training and my examination of my own modeling experiences, it became clear to me that contextualizing modeling was a key practice, in a broad sense: both in from the perspective of feminist objectivity ("situating" models) and in the sense of detailing methods to improve reproducibility (research question 3). The practices I group under "context" help to allow for better use of high-variety data (research question 2), and also speak to the evaluation of technical considerations associated with high-volume big data (research question 1).
A key context for quantitative modeling is the epistemological background of a method: what is the underlying reasoning for how we believe we can learn about the world from the method? In my experience, understanding this is surprisingly difficult when canned software (whether open-source or proprietary) makes it easy to apply methods without being familiar with the underlying assumptions. Fortunately, I have found abundant online resources and training courses regarding the underlying assumptions of models and have been able to ask computer science and statistics colleagues to explain the often impenetrable documentation and underlying assumptions accompanying canned procedures. In more deeply investigating the epistemological background of statistical methods I have used in my work, I found that the history of the methods is important. For example,
A final note on epistemic guidelines: once I felt confident in the epistemic underpinnings of a method, if the restrictions of a particular quantitative epistemology felt uncomfortable, I have investigated alternatives. Hypothesis testing uses a construction of "null" versus "alternative," and either of these terms could be interpreted negatively or dismissively, while model selection approaches (
Another way of conceptualizing "giving context to modeling" is to provide more detail on the experimental apparatus, broadly construed, as a "data biography." Feminist studies scholar
Acknowledging that modeling frequently does not proceed in a linear, logical fashion -- and that recording the reasons for various decision points may aid understanding of how the final result came about -- is recognized by both engineers, suggesting describing modeling "paths," (
Methods for writing such "data biographies" could include extending a methods section to describe more details of the work or creating appendices with additional detail. Some journals now offer or suggest venues to publish more detailed accounts of methods (for example, www.protocols.io). One could publish a companion paper which describes the contexts in which the model arose, how the people involved interacted, what each of their backgrounds and perspectives were. In order to write a data biography, one may need to keep a modeler’s notebook or journal to keep track of choices and the reasons for them (proposed by modelers
Several issues arise from this idea of a data biography. First, how does one know which details of a context to include as part of the "apparatus list" (raised by geographer
As a final note, I have sometimes been on the other side, trying to re-purpose data or conduct a meta-analysis when the original study does not provide enough detail to model the observation process. In these cases, I have found myself using qualitative research methods (often learning them inefficiently "on the job"), e.g. interviewing the researchers about their methods. I would have benefited from more formal training in ethnographic methods, either via interdisciplinary instruction on mixed methods, getting advice from colleagues with these skills, or directly collaborating with them, in order to more effectively obtain the needed information in an appropriate timeframe.
There can be an element of qualitative data synthesis at work behind quantitative models, which can also be valuable context to acknowledge. Many modelers openly recognize that data can be quantitative or qualitative (
As I have reflected on how to define quantitative and qualitative analysis, I found that I iterate between both ways of thinking. As I searched for guidance on what distinguished quantitative from qualitative methodology and how to combine quantitative and qualitative data, I eventually concluded that the two are surprisingly commingled, even in existing modeling practice. I encountered many different definitions of "qualitative," and even having learned qualitative research methods, I see easy ways to flexibly apply quantitative assessments to qualitatively-generated data. Similarly, I can identify many points in a quantitative analysis which involve qualitative assessments. For example: looking at a graph of quantitative measurements and then proceeding based on a qualitative observation about the shape of the graph or the clustering of the points; integrating quantitative knowledge about many different sources upfront into a qualitative sense of what to expect from a model result or model performance indicator; or using qualitative arguments to explain quantitative results. And qualitative approaches to data collection can provide valuable insight into designing model structure or determining model parameters. In many ways, the distinction between qualitative and quantitative methods is less about theoretical differences and more about analytical cultural differences. I am an example of a quantitatively trained researcher who has since learned qualitative methods, and I find that the ability to choose between methods in either category -- and sometimes combine them -- lends richness and rigor to my analysis. And there may be cases where qualitative analysis is taken more seriously if the researcher can speak the language of quantitative analysis as well (e.g. anthropologist
Giving modeling better context allows better perspective on why phenomena might appear a certain way through a given modeling process, but this way of seeing is still only a partial view of the object of interest. Feminist objectivity suggests that we must also find ways to bring a given model into dialogue with multiple other partial views or knowledges in order to get a more complete picture (as per Haraway's "Situated Knowledges"). The practices I group under "collaboration" address ways to implement this strategy. They can help in assessing the technical issues with high-volume big data and lay the groundwork for addressing the issues of algorithmic knowledge (research question 1); this set of practices also connects with issues of reproducibility (research question 3).
All models are partial representations, so one way to get a more complete picture is to use "triangulation," a method used by social scientists to bring multiple different datasets or sources of knowledge to bear on the same question (see educational researchers
Bringing multiple knowledges together does not always result in consensus, however, and allowing for knowledges not to eliminate each other when they do not agree is critical: collaborative modeling should not erase difference (see geographers and interdisciplinary scholars
There are established methods for triangulation in the form of meta-analysis. One prominent example from health research is the Cochrane method for combining information from different studies (
Triangulation also has something to offer the reproducibility debate. As described in the Introduction, actually reproducing studies requires more than reading methods (from historians of science and statisticians
Multiple stories are another way to reframe modeling uncertainty, as well. Environmental scientists
Uncertainty could guide us towards what to investigate further (whether quantitatively or qualitatively). For example, sensitivity analysis in population viability models involves investigating which demographic parameters like growth or survival have the largest impact on overall population growth or decline. The results of the sensitivity analysis can therefore point to biological quantities that are important to know precisely in order to accurately assess population viability. If these parameters are not well known, the analysis helps direct research priorities towards better constraining them (see mathematical ecologist
Engaging multiple interested parties with an attitude of openness and a knowledge that we may not be able to resolve the uncertainty but must act anyway (the "post-normal" view) might be a way forward for some of difficult contemporary issues of global concern (see geographers and environmental scientists
Seeking interdisciplinary training and experience is key in working on critical contemporary problems (potentially assisting with triangulation, according to epidemiologists
In learning interdisciplinary collaboration skills, practical experience is key, and explicit training can be invaluable (see interdisciplinary scholars
Interdisciplinary collaboration should also enable modelers to address ethical issues at all stages of a project, either by collaborating with ethicists (see biologist and statistician
As we collectively and mindfully re-imagine contemporary modeling practice, we need interdisciplinary teams of practicing modelers and critical scholars. We can strive to be patient with different timelines and create an environment of mutual respect and trust where collaborators are able to admit ignorance and ask questions. These practices can be fostered at multiple levels, by both institutions and individuals.
When facing the reality of collaboratively bringing together different kinds of knowledge, issues of justice -- especially whose knowledge counts -- quickly crop up. This phenomenon is especially apparent in issues of algorithmic injustice (see mathematician/economist
The ways in which different collaborators' relative circumstances emphasize their knowledge production over others can be critical in the success or failure of research. Feminist studies scholar
For example, in writing and working on interdisciplinary grants and projects, collaborators from different disciplines do not necessarily receive equal financial (and other) benefits. Even within a discipline, the majority of the labor can often be pushed onto less senior, more vulnerable team members (e.g. graduate students and postdoctoral researchers). Ensuring that greater labor and responsibility comes with appropriate authority, compensation, and credit could help to mitigate this imbalance. Even in explicitly participatory research, many authors do not give authorship credit to the communities they engage with (see interdisciplinary scholars
Learning to look through different lenses and to perceive the impacts of power differentials between collaborators is not typically part of modelers' training, but modelers can learn to facilitate discussions of these issues with colleagues -- explicit facilitation training could be useful here. Even being aware of or receptive to hearing about problems can be an important first step, and documenting these issues in the data biography may also be appropriate. Modelers and their collaborators may need to experiment with ways to mitigate power imbalances, even potentially pushing back on institutional or structural barriers that constrain them, where possible.
Modeling does not take place in a vacuum, and engaging with its justice implications should involve asking who will be harmed and who will benefit from models, or as political ecologists might put it, who are the "winners and losers?" (
Mixed-method qualitative ground-truthing of models along with open access to their assumptions and mechanisms can be key for being responsible for the models' impact; if they begin to do damage but people can audit them, the system can auto-correct (see mathematician and economist
Where possible, modelers can work directly with the people who will be impacted by their results (though one challenge is identifying not just intended end-users of models, but others who will be impacted as well). Mathematician and economist
Collaborative modeling also engages people with the modeling process and products and invites the opportunity for more just modeling. This approach incorporates some of the concepts of Participatory Action Research (PAR), in which research is "generally not done on participants; it is done with participants" (educational scholars
While it may not be feasible to engage with users during all phases of modeling, making an effort to increase engagement where possible could be a way to improve modeling transparency and trustworthiness. Many modelers are encouraging working with model users (see mathematicians, geographers and environmental scientists
I set out to understand how I could improve my modeling, and ultimately found that modelers are already engaging with many of the issues I had discovered from my work and my training in science and technology studies (research question 5). I also found that there was solid theoretical support from a wide range of social sciences for the practices modelers were already proposing and implementing. My manifesto reflects this movement-in-progress and also the potential for further work, and is meant to grow and change and be elaborated on: There are many different types of modeling, and the issues raised in the introduction and throughout the manifesto practices may apply differently to simulations, mathematical models, statistical models, and machine-learning driven predictive models.
Future work should therefore involve investigating which practices apply to what kinds of modeling, and to which stages of modeling -- for example, project development and choice versus implementation, evaluation, and/or publication (I have made an initial attempt in Fig.
Workflow diagram for manifesto practices, showing which project stages may benefit from which practices. Interdisciplinary fluency, engaging with community-based modeling, and paying attention to power dynamics as well as impacts and implications are all important at all stages of modeling work. Epistemic consistency is important throughout model development (the three middle steps of model choice, construction, and description) and communication, while triangulation and mixed methods contribute largely to model development. The data biography is most important in the model description stage, though one may need to keep a journal and track details of the model development process in order to create the data biography. Treating uncertainty as openness is most important in model communication and application; however, this could feed back into iterative model development steps as well, or one could design models to aid in treating uncertainty as openness.
Modeler's manifestos have also pointed to the importance of institutional change as well as individual change (
This work relied on the discussions and literature recommendations of my colleagues, as well as their insightful comments on various drafts of the Manifesto. I thank a subset of them here: Martha Kenney, Jon Solera, Lizzy Hare, Jenny Reardon, Katherine Weatherford Darling, Perry de Valpine, Carl Boettiger, Andrew Mathews, Aaron Fisher, Ashley Buchanan, Eric Nost, Jenny Goldstein, Luke Bergmann, Justin Kitzes, K.B. Wilson, Jennifer Glaubius, Trevor Caughlin, and David O’Sullivan.
SEES Fellows: Understanding the Dynamics of Resilience in a Social-Ecological System, Integrating Qualitative and Quantitative Information and Community-Based Action Research
Science and Justice Research Center, University of California, Santa Cruz
The author has no conflicts of interest to declare.
In this appendix, I explain in more detail how my background and values influenced my motivations and choices in creating the Modeler's Manifesto. I am putting into practice a part of the Manifesto itself, creating a description of the experimental apparatus (me) -- a part of the "data biography."