Two hypotheses regarding drivers of adaptation, illustrated by simulated effects of individual drivers on an adaptation index (see below Tasks 1.1, 1.2, 3.2 in the Work Plan). Categories of drivers distinguished by symbols: diamond (u) = science; square (■) = culture; circle (●) = climate; triangle (▲) = cross-border; and × = regional program capacity. Whiskers represent 95% Bayesian credibility intervals; open symbols illustrate significant positive effects. Cx = communication.